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HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI AUG 13 1999
 
DORA CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISTINCT EYE BUT THE RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WARMING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. OBJECTIVE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS DECREASED ACCORDINGLY TO 115 KNOTS.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
BEGIN AS DORA MOVES OVER COOLER WATER DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE
WEAKENING TREND IS INDICATED BY SHIPS...SHIFOR...AND AVN MODELS.
 
DORA HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD MOTION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AND
IS NOW MOVING AT 270/18.  THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
STRONG DEEP LAYER OF EASTERLY WINDS WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND
IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP.  HOWEVER...IN 24 TO 36
HOURS DORA SHOULD MOVE INTO A WEAKER EASTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW AND
BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN. THIS IS REFLECTED IN MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE WITH AN ADJUSTMENT FOR THE FASTER SPEED.  ON THIS TRACK...A
WEAKENING DORA SHOULD BE NEARING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/1500Z 15.5N 136.7W   115 KTS
12HR VT     14/0000Z 15.5N 139.3W   110 KTS
24HR VT     14/1200Z 15.7N 142.7W   100 KTS
36HR VT     15/0000Z 16.0N 145.9W    90 KTS
48HR VT     15/1200Z 16.3N 149.1W    80 KTS
72HR VT     16/1200Z 17.5N 155.5W    70 KTS
 
 
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