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TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2001
THE 12 AVIATION MODEL RUN SHOWS THE SAME SCENARIO AS THE PREVIOUS
RUN. AN IMPULSE AT 500 MB DROPS SOUTHWESTWARD AND BECOMES A WEAK
CUT-OFF LOW OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA IN 36 HOURS. THIS ACCELERATES
BARRY NORTHWARD OR MAYBE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR A WHILE AROUND THE
EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/01. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS NORTHWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TO
ABOUT 10 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS AND THIS TRACK SHOULD MOVE BARRY INLAND
IN 30 TO 36 HOURS. THIS TRACK IS SHIFTED ABOUT 75 N MI EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS STILL SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF A COMPOSITE
OF THE GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND AVN MODELS.
U.S. AIRFORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT TODAY INDICATES THAT BARRY REMAINS A
35-KNOT STORM WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION...NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WHICH IS NOT WELL DEFINED. ALSO
THE GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON STRENGTHENING AND SO
DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BRINGING THE WIND TO 55 KNOTS BEFORE
LANDFALL INSTEAD OF 60 KNOTS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES THAT THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING BE EXTENDED EASTWARD TO APALACHICOLA.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/2100Z 27.2N 87.5W 35 KTS
12HR VT 05/0600Z 27.7N 87.4W 40 KTS
24HR VT 05/1800Z 29.0N 87.3W 50 KTS
36HR VT 06/0600Z 31.0N 87.3W 55 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT 06/1800Z 33.0N 88.0W 25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT 07/1800Z 35.0N 88.5W 20 KTS...INLAND
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