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TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2001
A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN WGMJ REPORTED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 55 KT...AND A
1004 MB PRESSURE...NOT FAR FROM THE CENTER OF THE CLOUD MASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT OF DEAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS TAKEN ON A
TROPICAL-TYPE APPEARANCE...AND SINCE THE SHIP OBSERVATION INDICATES
THAT THE STRONG WINDS ARE AGAIN NEAR THE CENTER...DEAN IS BEING
RE-DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE HISTORY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHIP SUGGESTS THAT ITS REPORTED WIND SPEED IS
SOMEWHAT HIGH...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT. THE STORM
SHOULD ENCOUNTER MUCH COOLER WATER IN A DAY OR SO AND IS LIKELY TO
BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THEN.
MOTION IS NE...050/16. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITHOUT MUCH ACCELERATION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...OR SOONER...THE
SYSTEM MAY MERGE WITH A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0900Z 38.3N 61.3W 50 KTS
12HR VT 27/1800Z 40.0N 59.0W 50 KTS
24HR VT 28/0600Z 42.0N 55.5W 45 KTS
36HR VT 28/1800Z 43.5N 51.5W 45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 29/0600Z 45.0N 47.5W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 30/0600Z 49.0N 40.0W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
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