HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 01 2001
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHT WARMING IN THE CLOUD TOP 
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THIS COMBINED WITH THE 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.0 AND 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB 
RESPECTIVELY SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL A DEPRESSION WITH 
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS LOOKING HEALTHY 
AND ANOTHER GOOD BURST OF CONVECTION COULD STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM TO 
A TROPICAL STORM.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/18.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR
THE TRACK FORECAST IS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE AVN
MODEL FORECASTS A 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE MODELS
SHOW TRACKS BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH THE GFDL THE
LEFT-MOST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFDL MODEL AND 
IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. 

THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 64 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS
UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO A HURRICANE IN 72 
HOURS.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0300Z 13.1N  36.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     02/1200Z 13.7N  39.2W    35 KTS
24HR VT     03/0000Z 14.7N  42.4W    40 KTS
36HR VT     03/1200Z 15.6N  45.7W    45 KTS
48HR VT     04/0000Z 16.6N  48.8W    55 KTS
72HR VT     05/0000Z 18.5N  54.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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