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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 06 2001
INFRARED IMAGES SUGGEST LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE ORGANIZATION OF
ERIN SO FAR. HOWEVER THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR EVENTUAL STRENGTHENING. THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS DEGENERATED INTO A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS...AND
HIGH CLOUD MOTIONS SHOW SHOW SOUTHEASTERLIES OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF ERIN. THIS INDICATES THAT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
BECOMING ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE FAVORABLE SIGNS IN
THE ENVIRONMENT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE
SINCE ERIN HAS BEEN SO FICKLE UP TO THIS POINT.
THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON NIGHT-TIME IMAGES. MY BEST
GUESS FOR INITIAL MOTION IS 330/6...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. ERIN MAY BE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
REMNANTS AT THIS TIME. A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
BYPASSING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER THERE IS ALSO A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
VORTEX ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...STEERS SLOWLY ERIN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE VORTEX. THIS IS ON THE LEFT
EDGE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.
ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ERIN
AROUND 06Z.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0300Z 24.0N 58.7W 25 KTS
12HR VT 07/1200Z 24.8N 59.4W 30 KTS
24HR VT 08/0000Z 25.6N 60.2W 40 KTS
36HR VT 08/1200Z 26.3N 61.0W 50 KTS
48HR VT 09/0000Z 27.2N 62.0W 60 KTS
72HR VT 10/0000Z 29.0N 64.0W 65 KTS
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