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HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2001

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT ERIN HAS MAINTAINED ITS 
INTENSITY FOR THE TIME BEING.  SINCE THE HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE OVER 
A RIBBON OF SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR 
SO...WEAKENING IS PREDICTED TO BE SLOW.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD...ERIN SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

THE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  ERIN 
IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...AND THEN 
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND A TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR THE NORTHEAST U.S. 
COAST.  THIS IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE.  
 
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A HAZARD
ALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/2100Z 37.9N  64.9W    80 KTS
12HR VT     12/0600Z 38.5N  63.8W    80 KTS
24HR VT     12/1800Z 39.0N  61.7W    75 KTS
36HR VT     13/0600Z 39.8N  59.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     13/1800Z 41.0N  57.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     14/1800Z 46.0N  52.5W    60 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 
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