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HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2001
FELIX HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE...EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST AND PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES. THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATED FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO
5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...EQUIVALENT TO 90 KNOTS. THE WATER IS
EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND THE SHEAR LOW...THEREFORE SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. IN FACT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS.
FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH ABOUT 11 KNOTS AND IS ABOUT THE
REACH THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND ENTER INTO
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LATITUDE FLOW. A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST IS
ANTICIPATED IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS NO REASON TO DISCUSS THE MODELS...THEY ARE
ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT.
FELIX IS A POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE AZORES IN ABOUT 4 TO 5 DAYS.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/1500Z 26.4N 48.4W 90 KTS
12HR VT 14/0000Z 28.0N 47.7W 100 KTS
24HR VT 14/1200Z 29.5N 45.0W 105 KTS
36HR VT 15/0000Z 30.5N 41.5W 105 KTS
48HR VT 15/1200Z 32.0N 38.0W 100 KTS
72HR VT 16/1200Z 35.0N 32.0W 90 KTS
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