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TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2001
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...FELIX HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AND
HAS TURNED TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR
HAS DISPLACED THE MODERATE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE WIND FIELD REMAINS FAIRLY LARGE...WHILE
THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHRINK.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 120/03. HOWEVER...A RETURN TO A MORE
EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED AS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY DURING THE THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
BEYOND. THE NARROW RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AZORES THAT HAS BLOCKED
THE FORWARD MOTION OF FELIX IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD
AND BECOMING MORE NARROW AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS
SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FELIX TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD LATER TODAY. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS A
BLEND BETWEEN THE NOGAPS...GFDN...AND UKMET MODELS...WHICH ARE MUCH
SLOWER THAN THE AVN MODEL.
FELIX IS FORECAST TO ONLY WEAKEN SLOWLY SINCE THE WATER TEMPERATURES
BENEATH THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 24-25C...WHICH IS
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME MODERATE CONVECTION. IF THE
SHEAR WEAKENS ENOUGH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FELIX COULD
RE-STRENGTHEN BACK TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IF CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/1500Z 34.9N 31.0W 60 KTS
12HR VT 18/0000Z 34.9N 30.5W 60 KTS
24HR VT 18/1200Z 34.9N 29.5W 55 KTS
36HR VT 19/0000Z 35.2N 28.0W 50 KTS
48HR VT 19/1200Z 35.3N 26.4W 45 KTS
72HR VT 20/1200Z 35.0N 24.5W 45 KTS
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