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TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2001
FELIX HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS UNDER
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER...DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING CLOSER TO
THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND DEEPER CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED
NEAR THE CENTER. OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR TO THE NORTH.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/02...BASED PRIMARILY ON AN
EXPECTED EASTWARD DRIFT TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOW MUCH MORE WIDELY DIVERGENT. THE UKMET...AVN...AND
GFDL MODELS TAKE FELIX SLOWLY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER ITS
PREVIOUS TRACK...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS VARY BETWEEN A
SLOW NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS SLOWER AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK
AND CLOSE TO THE VICBAR AND GFDN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH FELIX REMAINING A DEEPER CIRCULATION THAN THE UKMET...AVN...AND
GFDL MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GET NUDGED
SLOWLY EASTWARD BY THE LARGER-SCALE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN
INDICATED IN THE 12Z U.S. UPPER-AIR DATA AND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
FELIX IS FORECAST TO ONLY WEAKEN SLOWLY SINCE THE WATER TEMPERATURES
BENEATH THE CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 24-25C...WHICH IS
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME MODERATE CONVECTION AS INDICATED
BY THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER. IT IS
STILL POSSIBLE THAT FELIX COULD RE-STRENGTHEN BACK TO HURRICANE
INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO IF THE CONVECTION WRAPS BACK
AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER...IF FELIX DOES
NOT BEGIN TO MOVE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...OR IF IT MOVES BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST...THEN THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER COLD UPWELLED
WATER AND WOULD LIKELY DIE A QUICK DEATH.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/2100Z 35.1N 31.7W 55 KTS
12HR VT 18/0600Z 34.8N 30.5W 55 KTS
24HR VT 18/1800Z 34.7N 29.3W 50 KTS
36HR VT 19/0600Z 34.8N 28.0W 45 KTS
48HR VT 19/1800Z 34.8N 27.0W 40 KTS
72HR VT 20/1800Z 34.5N 26.0W 40 KTS
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