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HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2001
THERE HAS BEEN NO MORE RECONNAISSANCE COVERAGE OF HUMBERTO...AND NOT
MUCH SATELLITE COVERAGE EITHER BECAUSE OF THE ECLIPSE PERIOD...SO
THIS PACKAGE LARGELY ECHOES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FIRST IMAGES OUT
OF ECLIPSE INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE STRUCTURE OR MOTION.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 TO 65 KT...SO WE WILL KEEP
HUMBERTO A HURRICANE FOR NOW. WATER TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SHARPLY
IN ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...AND WEAKENING IS FORECAST JUST A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
HUMBERTO CONTINUES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE.
DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV MISSION LAST NIGHT SUGGESTS THAT HUMBERTO
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF ANY STRONG MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...AND SO NOT
MUCH ACCELERATION IS FORECAST UNITL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE...INITIALIZED WITH THE DROPSONDE DATA...APPEARS
TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0900Z 38.0N 63.0W 65 KTS
12HR VT 25/1800Z 39.1N 61.8W 60 KTS
24HR VT 26/0600Z 40.3N 59.8W 50 KTS
36HR VT 26/1800Z 41.5N 56.0W 45 KTS
48HR VT 27/0600Z 42.0N 51.0W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 28/0600Z 42.0N 41.0W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
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