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TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 14 2001
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DECREASING DEEP CONVECTION AND THE CYCLONES
MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 50 KNOTS. KAREN
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN OVER THE COLDER WATERS...AND LOSE ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AFTER REACHING NOVA SCOTIA. IN 48
HOURS...OR SOONER...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY.
ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION...360/10...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATES A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE RIGHT WITH ACCELERATION...AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE AVN GUIDANCE.
THE WIND AND SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE 00Z SHIP AND
BUOY OBSERVATIONS.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0300Z 41.4N 64.4W 50 KTS
12HR VT 15/1200Z 43.7N 64.1W 45 KTS
24HR VT 16/0000Z 48.0N 62.0W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 16/1200Z 51.5N 58.0W 30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 17/0000Z...ABSORBED...DISSIPATED
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