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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST MON OCT 29 2001
SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE NEAR
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER THE SYSTEM. IF
THIS IS THE CASE...THEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY FORECASTS MAY
BE MORE REALISTIC. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO 45 KTS NEAR THE POINT OF RECURVATURE. AT 72
HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL AND BE ABSORBED INTO THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL GIVE 30 KTS
AND SHIP ELGJ8 AGAIN REPORTED AT 0600Z WITH A 30 KT SOUTHEAST WIND.
THE SHIP WAS LOCATED ABOUT 90 NMI EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE INITIAL MOTION
IS 285/08. AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IS FORECAST TO
RECURVE THE DEPRESSION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN 36 HOURS WHILE
ABSORBING IT INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/0900Z 27.7N 42.3W 30 KTS
12HR VT 29/1800Z 27.8N 43.4W 35 KTS
24HR VT 30/0600Z 28.8N 45.3W 40 KTS
36HR VT 30/1800Z 31.0N 46.0W 45 KTS
48HR VT 31/0600Z 34.0N 44.0W 45 KTS
72HR VT 01/0600Z 42.0N 38.0W 20 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
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