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TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST TUE OCT 30 2001
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KNOTS. THERE IS A WINDOW OF
ABOUT 24 HOURS AVAILABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING...UNTIL THE SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...LORENZO IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH...APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...IS GRADUALLY
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LORENZO. THEREFORE THE
STORMS HEADING SHOULD CONTINUE TO TURN TO THE RIGHT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. LORENZO WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE DUE TO THE FLOW ON
THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...BEFORE LOSING ITS IDENTITY.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0900Z 29.9N 45.8W 35 KTS
12HR VT 30/1800Z 32.0N 45.9W 40 KTS
24HR VT 31/0600Z 34.5N 44.0W 45 KTS
36HR VT 31/1800Z 37.0N 41.0W 40 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 01/0600Z...ABSORBED...DISSIPATED
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