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HURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST MON NOV 05 2001
BASED ON A USAF RECON FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 83 KNOTS AND A SHIP
REPORT OF 87 KNOTS IN THE BAHAMAS...THE 12Z WIND SPEED IS 80 KNOTS
AND THE 15Z WIND SPEED IN 75 KNOTS. THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES 51
KNOTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR BASED ON THE AVIATION MODEL ANALYSIS AND THE
SURFACE LOW IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS
IS A SITUATION CALLING FOR WEAKENING EVEN THOUGH THE STRONG WINDS
ARE PERSISTING.
THE 06Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE SHEARED LOW LEVEL CENTER MOVING
SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE OTHER MODELS SHOW MICHELLE ACCELERATING
NORTHEASTWARD AND MERGING WITH OTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOWS IN THE NEXT
72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND SOUTH OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...GIVING A SLIGHT WEIGHT TO THE AVIATION MODEL.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/1500Z 24.8N 77.2W 75 KTS
12HR VT 06/0000Z 25.9N 75.2W 65 KTS
24HR VT 06/1200Z 27.0N 72.1W 55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 07/0000Z 28.0N 68.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 07/1200Z 30.0N 64.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 08/1200Z 35.0N 57.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
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