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TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2001
OLGA APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. A 02Z
SSMI PASS SHOWED NO SURFACE WINDS ABOVE 30 KNOTS. THERE WERE SOME
35 KT VECTORS FROM THE QUIKSCAT THIS MORNING...BUT THEY WERE
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE SWATH EDGE IN AN AREA WHERE THE PASSIVE
SSMI DATA SHOWED LOWER WINDS. THERE IS NO LONGER ENOUGH DEEP
CONVECTION TO GENERATE A DVORAK DATA-T NUMBER. OLGA BARELY HAS
ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE
ARE ALSO HINTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO
DISTORT IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED WELL AWAY FROM
THE CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT THAT
IS MITIGATING AGAINST THE WARMING WATER TEMPERATURES...AND OLGA MAY
BE CLASSIFIED AS A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 240/15...THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE AVN AND UKMET AS TO HOW FAST THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF OLGA WILL WEAKEN...WITH THE AVN STALLING THE
REMNANTS OF OLGA BEFORE REACHING THE BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS NOT AS SLOW AND CARRIES A WEAK REMNANT LOW INTO THE BAHAMAS IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/1500Z 24.2N 66.8W 30 KTS
12HR VT 01/0000Z 23.5N 69.0W 30 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 01/1200Z 23.0N 71.0W 25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 02/0000Z 23.0N 72.5W 25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 02/1200Z 23.0N 74.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 03/1200Z 23.0N 76.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
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