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TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST TUE DEC 04 2001
THE CENTER IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND
THE LOW-CLOUD CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED ALONG AN
EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST AXIS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...HOWEVER DATA T-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE DOWN TO 1.5...SUGGESTING THAT WEAKENING IS TAKING
PLACE. THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER OLGA ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX
SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...AN INCREASED EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME SHEAR ON OLGA.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO INTO A REMNANT
LOW OR AN OPEN TROUGH.
OLGA IS DRIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE A
MORE WESTWARD MOTION LATER IN THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK...AND TO THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/1500Z 27.5N 68.0W 30 KTS
12HR VT 05/0000Z 27.1N 68.4W 30 KTS
24HR VT 05/1200Z 26.0N 69.0W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 06/0000Z 24.8N 71.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 06/1200Z 24.5N 73.5W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 07/1200Z 24.5N 78.5W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
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