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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED SEP 05 2001
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM STRUCTURE IS
BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL...AND MORE LIKE THAT OF A TYPICAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS TIGHTENED AROUND THE CENTER...WHICH
IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE UNDER THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME BANDING FEATURES NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND 35 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE
MODERATE EASTERLY SHEARING SO ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...DECREASING SSTS SHOULD BEGIN
TO WEAKEN HENRIETTE.
MOTION REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...275/14. THERE IS LIKELY
TO BE SOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE GIL SITUATED ABOUT
550 N MI TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NCEP GLOBAL
MODEL DOES NOT INITIALIZE HENRIETTE VERY WELL...AND SHOWS A SPURIOUS
VORTICITY MAXIMUM BETWEEN IT AND GIL. THIS RESULTS IN HENRIETTE
TURNING RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS IT ROTATES AROUND
BOTH GIL AND THE SPURIOUS VORTEX. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
GIL WILL...IN REALITY...DOMINATE THE STEERING SINCE HENRIETTE
APPEARS TO HAVE A LARGER CIRCULATION. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST ONLY BENDS THE STORMS HEADING GRADUALLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.
FORECASTER PASCH/AGUIRRE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0300Z 17.8N 117.9W 40 KTS
12HR VT 06/1200Z 18.3N 120.0W 45 KTS
24HR VT 07/0000Z 19.3N 122.7W 50 KTS
36HR VT 07/1200Z 20.5N 125.5W 45 KTS
48HR VT 08/0000Z 21.5N 128.0W 35 KTS
72HR VT 09/0000Z 22.5N 133.0W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
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