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TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU SEP 13 2001
 
IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IVOS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY..
SUGGESTING THE IMPACT OF THE COLD WATER THAT THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
OVER.  THE LAST DEVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 40 AND 30 KNOTS
FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET
AT 35 KNOTS...WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS.  THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN DISSIPATING IN 24 HOURS AND TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW.

THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME WITH A WEAK LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
RIDGE PROVIDING THE STEERING...TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...FOR IVO OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THE AVIATION MODEL TAKES WHAT IS LEFT OF THIS
SYSTEM FURTHER WEST...WHILE NOGAPS TURNS THE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHWEST.
IN EITHER EVENT...THE CIRCULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST BEYOND 48
HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAINFALL IN THIS AREA.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0300Z 25.0N 115.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     14/1200Z 26.0N 116.1W    30 KTS
24HR VT     15/0000Z 27.2N 117.4W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     15/1200Z 28.1N 118.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     16/0000Z 29.2N 118.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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