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TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM PDT FRI SEP 21 2001
REPORTS FROM A NOAA AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL STORM. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 52 KT...FROM AN ALTITUDE OF 5000
FT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 40 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE STEPPED
FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...REPORTED AN AREA OF 50 KT
SURFACE WINDS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A COMPROMISE OF THESE
VALUES.
JULIETTE IS A SMALL CYCLONE. SMALL SYSTEMS ARE PRONE TO RAPID
CHANGES IN INTENSITY...UP OR DOWN. UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS
ONLY FAIR...BUT THE WATERS ARE VERY WARM. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO RATHER
CLOSE TO LAND. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING
COULD OCCUR THEN.
JULIETTE IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM
MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/17. THIS
RAPID PACE IS DUE IN PART TO THE LOCATION OF THE SMALL CYCLONE
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE WAVE THAT SPAWNED THE SYSTEM. IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY THAT THIS FORWARD SPEED CAN BE MAINTAINED FOR LONG. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH WAS
INITIALIZED TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1800Z 13.4N 94.2W 45 KTS
12HR VT 22/0000Z 13.8N 95.5W 50 KTS
24HR VT 22/1200Z 14.4N 98.0W 50 KTS
36HR VT 23/0000Z 15.0N 100.1W 60 KTS
48HR VT 23/1200Z 16.0N 102.0W 70 KTS
72HR VT 24/1200Z 17.5N 105.0W 80 KTS
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