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TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI SEP 21 2001
DATA FROM A NOAA AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN 2
MB OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WAS 52 KT...
REDUCING TO ABOUT 40 KTS AT THE SURFACE. THE STEPPED FREQUENCY
MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...REPORTED AN AREA OF 60 KT SURFACE
WINDS ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE VORTEX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THIS DATA.
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 72
HOURS. THE WATER IS QUITE WARM AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS. THIS IS ALSO IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
JULIETTE IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD KEEP
THE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS
285/17...HOWEVER...THIS FORWARD SPEED SHOULD DECREASE AS THE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH WEAKENS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING EAST PACIFIC
TROUGH LATE IN THE FORECAST. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL
AND AVN FORECASTS...BUT THE UKMET FORWARD SPEED IS MUCH SLOWER.
FORECASTER HOLWEG/LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 13.7N 94.9W 50 KTS
12HR VT 22/0600Z 14.3N 97.2W 55 KTS
24HR VT 22/1800Z 14.9N 99.6W 60 KTS
36HR VT 23/0600Z 15.8N 101.8W 65 KTS
48HR VT 23/1800Z 16.6N 103.5W 75 KTS
72HR VT 24/1800Z 18.0N 106.0W 85 KTS
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