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HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN SEP 23 2001
JULIETTE HAS DEVELOPED A PINHOLE EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST AND PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE 100 KNOTS. BOTH ATMOSPHERIC AND
OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.
JULIETTE HAS RESUMED ITS WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. THE
HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH THROUGH A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE CAUSED BY AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH PLACE JULIETTE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...AND THE FACT THAT ONLY A SMALL
DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST AT THIS
TIME.
JULIETTE IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 15.0N 103.2W 100 KTS
12HR VT 24/0600Z 15.5N 104.0W 100 KTS
24HR VT 24/1800Z 16.5N 105.0W 105 KTS
36HR VT 25/0600Z 18.0N 106.0W 110 KTS
48HR VT 25/1800Z 18.5N 107.0W 110 KTS
72HR VT 26/1800Z 20.5N 107.5W 100 KTS
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