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HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU SEP 27 2001
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT JULIETTE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN BUT
STILL HAS PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING SO INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO 80 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
MAY OCCUR TODAY...THE OVERALL TREND IS SLOW WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES COOLER WATER.
JULIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD...ABOUT 6 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS...PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER-TROUGH NEARING
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO REBUILD AS INDICATED BY BOTH THE AVN
AND THE UK GLOBAL MODELS. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE JULIETTE TO TURN
TO A WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST MOTION BEYOND 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE
WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AT A VERY SLOW PACE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FORTUNATELY...THE OCEAN IS COLD AND JULIETTE
SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS WELL.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE MAY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/2100Z 21.7N 110.9W 80 KTS
12HR VT 28/0600Z 22.9N 111.1W 75 KTS
24HR VT 28/1800Z 24.0N 111.7W 65 KTS
36HR VT 29/0600Z 24.5N 113.0W 55 KTS
48HR VT 29/1800Z 25.5N 114.0W 45 KTS
72HR VT 30/1800Z 26.0N 115.0W 35 KTS
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