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TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT SEP 29 2001
WIND SHEAR...DRY AIR AND INTERACTION WITH LAND...HAVE WEAKENED
JULIETTE WHICH NOW CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND
A FEW TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45
KNOTS...ALTHOUGH STRONGER WINDS MAY STILL OCCUR AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE ALREADY MENTIONED PARAMETERS...COOL
WATER WILL BEGIN TO BE A PLAYER FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS A LITTLE
TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS LOCATION. JULIETTE APPEARS TO BE MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 4 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BRINGING THE
WEAKENING CENTER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA. THEREAFTER...JULIETTE
OR ITS REMNANTS WILL LIKELY MOVE TOWARD THE WEST STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
THE WEAKENING OF JULIETTE WILL DECREASE THE WIND PROBLEM FOR BAJA
CALIFORNIA BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE HAS REACHED ALMOST TO
30N OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND MAY SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/2100Z 24.2N 111.8W 45 KTS
12HR VT 30/0600Z 25.0N 112.3W 40 KTS
24HR VT 30/1800Z 26.0N 113.0W 35 KTS
36HR VT 01/0600Z 26.7N 114.0W 30 KTS
48HR VT 01/1800Z 27.5N 114.5W 25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT 02/1800Z 27.5N 116.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
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