ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN SEP 30 2001
JULIETTE IS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE NEAREST CONVECTION 100
MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT
LAND AREAS. SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 AND 35
KNOTS FROM TAFB AND SAB. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A FEW RAIN
FLAGGED 35 KNOT WINDS AND THE REST ARE BELOW 35 KNOTS. JULIETTE IS
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. VERTICAL SHEAR...COLDER
SSTS...AND PROXIMITY TO LAND SHOULD CONTINUE THE WEAKENING PROCESS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 340/4. THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL
SHOWS THE SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE FORWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE SLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVN...GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS
MODELS...GRADUALLY TURNING THE MOTION WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER LEVEL FLOW.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE HAS SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND WESTERN TEXAS.
THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER THE
NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.
ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA.
EVEN THOUGH JULIETTE HAS WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION...IT WILL TAKE A
WHILE FOR THE 12 FT SEAS TO SUBSIDE.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0900Z 25.0N 112.1W 30 KTS
12HR VT 30/1800Z 25.8N 112.5W 30 KTS
24HR VT 01/0600Z 27.0N 113.3W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 01/1800Z 28.0N 114.0W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 02/0600Z 28.6N 115.0W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 03/0600Z 28.5N 116.5W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING
NNNN
Problems?