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TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN SEP 30 2001
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CLOUD CENTER THAT IS SIGNIFICANTLY
FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS POSITION ESTIMATES. EVEN THOUGH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE EQUIVOCAL...PRUDENCE DICTATES THAT WE ASSUME A
SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER EXISTS...BUT IT HAS RE-FORMED NEAR THE
DEEPER CLOUDS. TO ACCOMMODATE THE ABOVE FACTORS WE ARE USING A
LONGER-TERM...ABOUT 18 H...INITIAL MOTION OF 12 KNOTS. JULIETTE
APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE LEFT WITH TIME. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS.
SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND MOST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
SYSTEM IS STILL A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN OBSERVATION OF 40 KNOTS
FROM SANTA ROSALIA WAS NOT CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS AND SUBSEQUENT
OBSERVATIONS FROM THAT SITE...OR WITH THE CONTEMPORANEOUS CLOUD
PATTERN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT
TERM WHILE JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SEA OF
CORTEZ...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RE-STRENGTHENING.
LATER ON...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED EITHER DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND
OR COOLER WATER.
AN ALTERNATE INTERPRETATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE REPORTS
FROM GUAYMAS MEXICO IS THAT A LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. IF THAT IS THE CASE...THE
SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY SOON. IN ANY EVENT
JULIETTE...OR ITS REMNANT...IS EXPECTED TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
RADAR DATA SHOWS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE BEGINNING TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ARIZONA BORDER.
FORECASTER PASCH/RAPPAPORT
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/2100Z 28.7N 112.1W 30 KTS
12HR VT 01/0600Z 29.9N 112.8W 30 KTS
24HR VT 01/1800Z 31.0N 114.2W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 02/0600Z 31.3N 116.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 02/1800Z 31.0N 117.3W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 03/1800Z 30.5N 119.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
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