ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN SEP 23 2001
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS STABLE AIR ENTRAINING AROUND THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OF KIKO. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS
LIMITED TO SOME BANDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT
KIKO IS ENTERING AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND STRENGTHENING HAS
STOPPED. A STEADY STATE OR A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME INTERMITTENT BURST OF CONVECTION MAY SRILLL
OCCUR.
KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST ABOUT 10 TO 11 KNOTS. A COUPLE OF
MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. IT APPEARS THAT THESE TROUGHS ARE NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO TURN KIKO NORTHWARD AND WILL ONLY WEAKEN THE WESTWARD
STEERING. A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK IS INDICATED IN AGREEMENT WITH
DYNAMICAL MODELS.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 18.4N 125.1W 55 KTS
12HR VT 24/0600Z 18.5N 127.0W 55 KTS
24HR VT 24/1800Z 18.5N 129.0W 55 KTS
36HR VT 25/0600Z 18.5N 130.0W 55 KTS
48HR VT 25/1800Z 18.5N 131.0W 50 KTS
72HR VT 26/1800Z 18.5N 132.0W 45 KTS
NNNN
Problems?