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TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU OCT 04 2001
HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION HAS BECOME DISTORTED. ONLY A SMALL AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION EXISTS...BEING SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
CENTER. LORENA IS IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATION...ALTHOUGH A
REMNANT LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MIGHT REACH THE COAST EARLY
TOMORROW.
INITIAL MOTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
EARLIER ESTIMATES. THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY THE SAME AS IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AS LORENAS REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO BE STEERED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH.
SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS DISSIPATING...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY.
FORECASTER PASCH/TICHACEK/MOLLEDA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/2100Z 20.1N 106.6W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 05/0600Z 21.5N 106.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 05/1800Z 24.0N 104.5W 15 KTS...REMNANT LOW INLAND
36HR VT 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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