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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED OCT 03 2001

THE PERSISTENT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WELL SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN
LUCAS HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH PERSISTENT CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED
AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE 30 KT...SO THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THE LAST
IR IMAGE HINTED THAT THE CONVECTION MAY BE STARTING TO WANE A 
LITTLE BIT...AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE SYSTEM WILL SHOW
LARGE CONVECTIVE VARIABILITY UNTIL IS CONSOLIDATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
CYCLONE IS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE...
AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS THAT SOME RIDGING WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE
DEPRESSION AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS DEVELOPING NEAR
THE U.S. WEST COAST.  MOST NHC GUIDANCE AGREES ON A GENERALLY
WESTWARD MOTION...SAVE FOR LBAR WHICH TURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD
BY 72 HR.  THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A WESTWARD MOTION AT
ABOUT 8-9 THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE DEPRESSION SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE WEST SEMICIRCLE...ALONG
WITH SOME HINTS OF EASTERLY SHEAR.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE A BIT
DIVERGENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE CYCLONE THROUGH 48
HR...ALTHOUGH THEY ALL AGREE ON GENERALLY LIGHT SHEAR.  AFTER THAT
TIME...THEY ALL FORECAST INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HR AND NO
CHANGE AFTER THAT.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/0900Z 13.8N 121.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     03/1800Z 13.8N 123.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     04/0600Z 13.9N 124.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     04/1800Z 14.0N 126.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     05/0600Z 14.1N 127.4W    45 KTS
72HR VT     06/0600Z 14.5N 130.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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