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TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE OCT 23 2001
UNDER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER IS EXPOSED
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS SEEN ON
INFRARED...SSMI...AND TRMM IMAGERY. AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
QUICKLY DISAPPEARING. SO NARDA IS ON HER WAY OUT. 00Z DVORAK
ESTIMATES ARE 55 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
FOR 09Z IS DECREASED TO 50 KNOTS AND DISSIPATION IS FORECAST IN A
DAY OR SO.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/11 BASED ON THE PAST 12 HOURS OF
MOTION AND THE SHORTER TERM MOTION IS 270 DEGREES. SINCE NARDA IS
BECOMING A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...THE MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DUE WESTWARD UNDER LOW-LEVEL STEERING. HOWEVER ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
MODELS SHOW SOME NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...SO THE FORECAST
TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST BUT IS TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS TO THE LEFT OF ALL OF THE GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0900Z 16.2N 137.1W 50 KTS
12HR VT 23/1800Z 16.4N 138.8W 40 KTS
24HR VT 24/0600Z 16.9N 141.4W 30 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 24/1800Z 17.3N 143.9W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 25/0600Z 17.8N 146.0W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 26/0600Z 18.5N 150.0W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING
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