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TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE OCT 23 2001
STRONG SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON NARDA...AND REMOVED ESSENTIALLY
ALL DEEP CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A DISTINCT SWIRL OF
LOW CLOUDS WITH ESTIMATED MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.
INTERMITTENT FLARE-UPS OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. OTHERWISE...NARDA CAN BE CONSIDERED AS A
DISSIPATING REMNANT LOW. ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY.
THE WESTWARD MOTION HAS INCREASED TO 14 KNOTS...OR MORE...AS NARDA
IS BEING STEERED BY MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWINDS. A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BASED ON THE CURRENT MOTION...THE CENTER SHOULD CROSS 140W AND ENTER
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER...CPHC...AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
LATER TODAY. THEREFORE THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED BY
THE CPHC.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/1500Z 16.4N 139.0W 35 KTS
12HR VT 24/0000Z 16.7N 141.0W 30 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 24/1200Z 17.1N 143.3W 25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 25/0000Z 17.5N 145.5W 25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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