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HURRICANE ERIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST WED SEP 12 2001
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 38.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST SAT SEP 15 2001
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
38.7N 59.9W 32 X X X 32 SABLE ISLAND NS X 4 6 3 13
40.0N 58.2W 9 10 1 1 21 SYDNEY NS X X 3 5 8
41.4N 56.7W X 11 4 2 17 EDDY POINT NS X 1 3 4 8
EASTPORT ME X X 1 1 2 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X 1 5 6
ST JOHN NB X X 1 2 3 BURGEO NFLD X X 1 6 7
MONCTON NB X X 1 2 3 ILE ST PIERRE X X 2 7 9
YARMOUTH NS X X 2 2 4 CAPE RACE NFLD X X 2 7 9
HALIFAX NS X 1 3 3 7 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X X 5 5
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU
C FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI
D FROM 2AM FRI TO 2AM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
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