Tropical Storm LISA
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TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI OCT 01 2004
LISA HAS BEEN A TENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE. SATELLITE IMAGES THIS
MORNING CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT LISA STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD
PATTERN WITH AN EYE FEATURE. HOWEVER...THE RING OF CONVECTION IS
NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT A HURRICANE. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 60
KNOTS BUT AT ANY TIME WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANCE FORCE.
LISA IS MOVING OVER COOL WATERS AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
BEGIN SOON.
LISA HAS TURNED TO THE NORTHEAST OR 035 DEGREES AND HAS INCREASED
ITS FORWARD SPEED TO 15 KNOTS. LISA IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH. THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36
HOURS. LISA IS EXPECTED TO TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE THEREAFTER.
THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED USING THE LASTEST HIGH RESOLUTION
QUIKSCAT.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1500Z 36.9N 46.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 39.0N 44.5W 55 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 42.0N 39.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 44.0N 33.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 03/1200Z 46.5N 24.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 04/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL
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