Hurricane FRANK
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU AUG 26 2004
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN NONEXISTENT FOR OVER 12 HOURS. AN EARLIER
26/0200Z QUIKSCAT PASS OVER FRANK REVEALED A FEW RESIDUAL 30 KT WIND
VECTORS OVER THE EAST QUADRANT. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS BASED ON
CONSTRAINTS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT...AND AFWA AT 35 KT. BASED
ON THE CONTINUED LACK OF CONVECTION...AND THE FACT THAT FRANKS
CURRENT STATE IS A FULLY EXPOSED WEAK SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT.
INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6 KT. FRANK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST
WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ESTABLISHED RIDGE
TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AS A REMNANT LOW OVER COOLER WATERS
OVER THE FEW NEXT DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN 48...OR POSSIBLY FASTER.
BASED ON THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND...ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0900Z 22.4N 119.3W 25 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 22.5N 120.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 27/0600Z 22.5N 121.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 27/1800Z 22.5N 123.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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