Tropical Depression NINE-E
ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED AUG 25 2004
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT
OCCURRED OVERNIGHT HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED...WITH ONLY WEAK
CONVECTION AND CIRRUS DEBRIS CURRENTLY REMAINING NORTH OF THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK CI NUMBERS OF 1.5 FROM
TAFB AND SAB...AS WELL AS AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS...SUPPORT
MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM AS A 25 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER SST LESS THAN 25 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND
UNDER MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. AS A RESULT...
DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.
INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 KNOTS. THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE IS FIRMLY IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION OF THE
DEPRESSION...AND ITS REMNANT LOW...DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFS SOLUTION.
FORECASTER KNABB/BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/1500Z 19.5N 127.3W 25 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 19.7N 128.8W 25 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 19.8N 130.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 27/0000Z 19.9N 133.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 27/1200Z 20.0N 135.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 28/1200Z 20.0N 140.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 29/1200Z 20.0N 144.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 30/1200Z 20.0N 147.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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