Tropical Storm GEORGETTE
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TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN AUG 29 2004
LAST VISIBLE IMAGES BEFORE SUNSET SHOWED A COMPLETELY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED 45 NM TO THE EAST OF A WEAKENING
BURST OF CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE IN THE 45-55 KT RANGE...DATA T
NUMBERS FROM ALL THE SATELLITE AGENCIES ARE DOWN TO 35 KT AND THIS
IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.
INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. THEREAFTER...THE
DISSIPATING CIRCULATION WILL BE STEERED ON AN ACCELERATING WESTWARD
TRACK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE. THE SIMPLER BAM
MODELS...NHC91 AND LBAR KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A NORTHWEST TRACK
THROUGH THE FORECAST...WHICH IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM BY THAT TIME.
GEORGETTE IS CURRENTLY OVER WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND 24C-25C AND
WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER WATER BETWEEN 23-24C THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST WITH DISSIPATION IN 36 HOURS
AND A REMNANT LOW THROUGH 96 HOURS. THIS IS FASTER THAN THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER COBB/LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0300Z 19.9N 123.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 20.2N 124.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 20.4N 126.2W 25 KT
36HR VT 31/1200Z 20.7N 128.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 01/0000Z 21.0N 130.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 02/0000Z 21.0N 135.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 03/0000Z 21.0N 139.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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