Hurricane HOWARD
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HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU SEP 02 2004
HOWARD HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...WITH VERY COLD CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A WELL-DEFINED EYE...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE NOW 127 KT FROM TAFB AND 115 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 120 KT. THERE IS STILL A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE EYE APPEARS A
LITTLE LARGER NOW...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE INTENSITY MAY BE
LEVELLING OFF. BY 24 HOURS...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE
HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY 72
HOURS...HOWARD SHOULD BE OVER SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER WATERS AND
WEAKENING RAPIDLY.
INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NW AROUND 8 KT. THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH TO THE NORTH OF HOWARD IS COLLAPSING AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA. THE U.K. MET CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY
DYNAMICAL MODEL THAT RECURVES HOWARD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH
SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS
THIS AS WELL.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/1500Z 18.2N 113.6W 120 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 18.8N 114.4W 125 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 19.7N 115.5W 110 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 20.7N 116.5W 100 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 21.9N 117.2W 85 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 24.5N 118.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 27.0N 118.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 28.5N 118.5W 25 KT
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