Hurricane IVAN
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HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
0300Z TUE SEP 07 2004
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...ST. LUCIA...ST.
VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...TOBAGO...AND GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IVAN.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 57.2W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 20SE 20SW 90NW.
34 KT.......140NE 50SE 50SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 57.2W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 56.3W
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 11.8N 59.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
50 KT... 75NE 20SE 20SW 90NW.
34 KT...140NE 50SE 50SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 12.7N 62.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.
50 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 90NW.
34 KT...140NE 60SE 60SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.7N 66.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...140NE 75SE 75SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.7N 69.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.2N 74.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 19.5N 78.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 21.5N 82.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 57.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z
FORECASTER LAWRENCE/HENNON
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