Tropical Storm HOWARD
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TROPICAL STORM HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112004
1500Z TUE AUG 31 2004
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 107.0W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 107.0W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 106.5W
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 15.3N 108.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.3N 110.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.1N 112.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.8N 114.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.0N 116.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 21.0N 118.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 23.5N 120.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 107.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
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