Tropical Storm JAVIER
ZCZC MIATCMEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132004
2100Z SAT SEP 11 2004
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 99.5W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 99.5W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 99.1W
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 12.4N 100.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 12.9N 102.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 13.7N 103.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 14.5N 104.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.5N 105.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 18.5N 105.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 20.5N 106.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 99.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z
FORECASTER COBB/PASCH
$$
NNNN