Tropical Storm JAVIER
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TROPICAL STORM JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132004
1500Z SUN SEP 12 2004
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 102.8W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 102.8W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 102.4W
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 13.3N 103.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.2N 105.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.1N 105.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.1N 106.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 20.5N 107.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 21.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 102.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
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