Hurricane JAVIER
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HURRICANE JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132004
0900Z TUE SEP 14 2004
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JAVIER.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 107.4W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 55NE 55SE 55SW 55NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 107.4W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 107.2W
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.3N 108.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 55SE 55SW 55NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.0N 108.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 55SE 55SW 55NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.7N 109.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.4N 110.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 22.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 24.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 107.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
FORECASTER BLAKE/JARVINEN
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