Hurricane JAVIER
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HURRICANE JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132004
1500Z TUE SEP 14 2004
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JAVIER.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 107.7W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 55NE 55SE 55SW 55NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 107.7W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 107.5W
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.3N 108.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 55SE 55SW 55NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.0N 108.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 55SE 55SW 55NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.8N 109.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.6N 110.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 23.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 25.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 107.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
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