Hurricane JAVIER
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HURRICANE JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132004
0900Z THU SEP 16 2004
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA...INCLUDING SAN CARLOS...TO LA PAZ. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 110.2W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 110.2W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 110.0W
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.6N 110.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.8N 111.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 23.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.1N 113.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 26.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 28.6N 115.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 31.0N 114.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 110.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
FORECASTER SISKO/JARVINEN
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