Hurricane JAVIER
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HURRICANE JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132004
2100Z THU SEP 16 2004
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BAHIA
MAGDALENA...INCLUDING SAN CARLOS...TO LA PAZ. INTERESTS IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JAVIER.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 111.2W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 111.2W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 110.9W
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.9N 111.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 22.0N 112.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.2N 113.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 24.7N 114.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 28.0N 115.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 29.5N 115.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 31.5N 113.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 111.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
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