Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E
ZCZC MIATCMEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152004
0900Z TUE OCT 12 2004
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO
ZIHUATANEJO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THIS AREA LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 98.0W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 98.0W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 97.7W
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.2N 98.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.5N 100.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.6N 101.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.8N 102.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.0N 105.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 16.0N 107.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 98.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
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