Hurricane FRANCES
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HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST MON AUG 30 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
17.9N 52.8W 52 X X X 52 TFFR 163N 615W X X X 5 5
18.9N 54.5W 15 20 X X 35 TAPA 171N 618W X X X 6 6
19.7N 56.4W X 18 9 1 28 TKPK 173N 627W X X X 5 5
TFFF 146N 610W X X X 2 2 TNCM 181N 631W X X X 5 5
TDPR 153N 614W X X X 3 3
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN
C FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN
D FROM 2PM SUN TO 2PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
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