Hurricane FRANCES
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HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.6 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST TUE AUG 31 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
19.4N 55.8W 56 X X X 56 TIST 183N 650W X X 1 11 12
20.0N 58.0W 11 26 X X 37 TJPS 180N 666W X X X 7 7
20.5N 60.5W X 13 15 1 29 MDSD 185N 697W X X X 2 2
TDPR 153N 614W X X 1 2 3 TJSJ 184N 661W X X X 10 10
80400 157N 636W X X X 4 4 MBJT 215N 712W X X X 2 2
TFFR 163N 615W X X 2 4 6 ST CROIX VI X X 1 9 10
TAPA 171N 618W X X 6 5 11 ST THOMAS VI X X 1 11 12
TKPK 173N 627W X X 4 7 11 SAN JUAN PR X X X 10 10
TNCM 181N 631W X X 5 9 14 PONCE PR X X X 7 7
TISX 177N 648W X X 1 9 10
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON
C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON
D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
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