Hurricane FRANCES
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HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT MON SEP 6 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
26.4N 78.3W 53 X X X 53 KEY WEST FL 1 2 X 3 6
27.1N 79.5W 32 3 X X 35 MARCO ISLAND FL 3 9 2 2 16
27.6N 80.7W 7 17 1 1 26 FT MYERS FL 1 13 2 2 18
MYAK 241N 776W 7 X X 1 8 VENICE FL X 10 5 3 18
MYNN 251N 775W 55 X X X 55 TAMPA FL X 9 7 4 20
MYGF 266N 787W 45 1 X X 46 CEDAR KEY FL X 2 11 5 18
MARATHON FL 3 4 X 2 9 ST MARKS FL X X 5 10 15
MIAMI FL 18 3 1 X 22 APALACHICOLA FL X X 4 10 14
W PALM BEACH FL 23 5 1 X 29 PANAMA CITY FL X X 2 11 13
FT PIERCE FL 14 13 1 1 29 PENSACOLA FL X X X 9 9
COCOA BEACH FL 3 20 2 1 26 MOBILE AL X X X 7 7
DAYTONA BEACH FL X 11 7 3 21 GULFPORT MS X X X 5 5
JACKSONVILLE FL X 1 9 7 17 BURAS LA X X X 4 4
SAVANNAH GA X X 2 10 12 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 3 3
CHARLESTON SC X X X 8 8 GULF 29N 85W X X 5 9 14
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 4 4 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 8 9
WILMINGTON NC X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 89W X X X 3 3
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT
C FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN
D FROM 2AM SUN TO 2AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER BEVEN
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