Hurricane IVAN
ZCZC MIASPFAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
20.0N 82.0W 48 X X X 48 KEY WEST FL X 8 8 3 19
21.5N 83.1W 16 16 X X 32 MARCO ISLAND FL X 1 8 6 15
23.1N 84.0W X 20 6 1 27 FT MYERS FL X X 7 8 15
MKJS 185N 779W 37 X X X 37 VENICE FL X X 5 10 15
MWCG 193N 814W 58 X X X 58 TAMPA FL X X 2 11 13
MUCF 221N 805W 12 6 1 1 20 CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 11 12
MUSN 216N 826W 20 12 X X 32 ST MARKS FL X X X 11 11
MUHA 230N 824W 2 21 2 1 26 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 13 13
MUAN 219N 850W X 20 3 1 24 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 12 12
MMCZ 205N 869W X 4 4 2 10 PENSACOLA FL X X X 10 10
MYGF 266N 787W X X X 4 4 MOBILE AL X X X 8 8
MMMD 210N 897W X X X 2 2 GULFPORT MS X X X 7 7
MARATHON FL X 5 7 4 16 BURAS LA X X X 8 8
MIAMI FL X X 5 5 10 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 5 5
W PALM BEACH FL X X 2 6 8 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 2 2
FT PIERCE FL X X 1 7 8 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 13 14
COCOA BEACH FL X X 1 6 7 GULF 29N 87W X X X 13 13
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 7 7 GULF 28N 89W X X X 11 11
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 6 6 GULF 28N 91W X X X 5 5
SAVANNAH GA X X X 2 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON
C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON
D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
NNNN