Hurricane IVAN
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HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT THU SEP 16 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
23.2N 86.5W 40 X X X 40 CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 8 9
25.2N 87.4W 2 25 1 X 28 ST MARKS FL X X 1 10 11
27.2N 87.7W X 10 11 1 22 APALACHICOLA FL X X 3 10 13
MUSN 216N 826W 14 X X 1 15 PANAMA CITY FL X X 4 10 14
MUHA 230N 824W 1 1 1 1 4 PENSACOLA FL X X 4 11 15
MUAN 219N 850W 66 X X X 66 MOBILE AL X X 5 10 15
MMCZ 205N 869W 26 X X 1 27 GULFPORT MS X X 6 10 16
MMMD 210N 897W 1 X X 1 2 BURAS LA X X 12 5 17
MARATHON FL X X 1 2 3 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 8 8 16
MIAMI FL X X X 2 2 NEW IBERIA LA X X 5 8 13
W PALM BEACH FL X X X 3 3 PORT ARTHUR TX X X 1 7 8
FT PIERCE FL X X X 3 3 GALVESTON TX X X 1 5 6
COCOA BEACH FL X X X 4 4 FREEPORT TX X X 1 3 4
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 5 5 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 2 2
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 6 6 GULF 29N 85W X X 6 8 14
SAVANNAH GA X X X 4 4 GULF 29N 87W X X 12 6 18
CHARLESTON SC X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 89W X 4 14 3 21
KEY WEST FL X 1 1 2 4 GULF 28N 91W X 2 11 4 17
MARCO ISLAND FL X X 1 4 5 GULF 28N 93W X X 6 4 10
FT MYERS FL X X 2 4 6 GULF 28N 95W X X 1 3 4
VENICE FL X X 2 6 8 GULF 27N 96W X X X 2 2
TAMPA FL X X 2 6 8
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE
C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED
D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
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